It’s not over til it’s over. There are less than 24 hours remaining until we close off 2018 (depending on where you live) and with bitcoin trading at $3,770 it seems most of this year’s outlandish bullish BTC price predictions are more than likely – not happening.
Price predictions are a tricky thing, they’re rarely correct and reputations are on the line but that’s what makes it fun.
We’re not talking about John McAfee’s $1,000,000 BTC prediction by the way (that one is not due until 2020). No genitalia was harmed in the making of this list.
5. BTC Will ‘Highly Likely’ Break $20,000 This Year – Pantera Capital
Starting off with the least outrageous out of the five – Pantera Capital Management.
On April 13, The crypto-based hedge fund sent out a newsletter to investors which stated that Bitcoin’s price of $6500 was the most likely bottom for the cryptocurrency and that the “highly likely” price target of $20,000 will be reached by the end of the year.
It is not at all surprising that the prediction was taken to heart by investors since the fund has already built up some credibility from its previous calls. Last year, The CEO of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead predicted that bitcoin’s price could drop another 50% before reaching new all-time highs. A prediction that in part came true.
Morehead wrote, he “rarely [has] such a strong conviction on timing. A wall of institutional money will drive the markets much higher.”
4. Bitcoin is going to $25,000 by year end – Tom Lee
Lee was betting on bitcoin’s recovery all throughout 2018, his key argument being cost of production or break-even point at which point BTC mining costs match bitcoin’s trading price. According to Lee, his most recent $15,000 estimated fair value for one bitcoin is based on roughly 2.2 times the break-even mining cost of $7,000. It is fair to say that BTC is trading way below that price point at the moment.
“The launch of ICE, Starbucks and Microsoft-backed Bakkt and Fidelity entering the market is “part of a broader creation of infrastructure necessary for institutional involvement,“.
3. $50,000 Bitcoin price target for end of year 2018 – Anthony Pompliano
Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano founder of a multi-billion dollar asset hedge fund investment firm and partner at Morgan Creek Digital Assets, has only recently backed down from his $50,000 BTC price prediction. Pomp is sticking to his price target claiming that right now the only unknown is the actual timeframe.
I’ve stuck to my $50,000 Bitcoin price target for end of year 2018.
Still have high confidence on the $50,000 number. The timeframe is the big unknown.
The next 5 months will be fun to watch.
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) July 25, 2018
2. $75,000 is just an interim target – John Pfeffer
In January, John Pfeffer, a London based investor, and entrepreneur was examining potential BTC price scenarios and made the bold claim that $75,000 bitcoin was a realistic target to reach before the end of the year. He went on to claim that this was just an “interim target”. It should be noted that despite being a professional investor for 11 years, Pfeffer was never involved in cryptocurrencies prior to his prediction.
1. Bitcoin headed to $100,000 in 2018 – Kay Van-Petersen
The Saxo Bank analyst first gained notoriety in 2016 when he successfully predicted the price of BTC will reach $2,000 in 2017. An impressive feat considering bitcoin was only trading at $900 and hasn’t had much mainstream media attention at the time. Of course, we all know what soon followed was a massive overshoot of Van-Petersen’s price target, bitcoin blew past $2,000 in May. Ultimately he went on to claim that bitcoin would hit between $50,000 and $100,000 in 2018.
“First off, you could argue we have had a proper correction in bitcoin, it has had a 50 percent pullback at one point, which is healthy. But we have still not seen the full effect of the futures contracts,“.
As 2018 draws to a close it becomes clear that most predictions were just that, and should have been taken with a huge grain of salt. The overwhelming bullish sentiment that carried over from 2017 created a chorus of public figures predicting big price rises for bitcoin. Each one more outrageous than the last.
This year the sentiment is different. When everyone is seeing lower prices ahead, might it be the right time to look forward to that $20,000, $25,000 or even $100,000 BTC?
Only time will tell.