It has been exactly one year since Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reached its all-time highs. December 17th saw BTC prices extend up to $19,891 (Bitfinex) what now in hindsight seems like obvious bullish euphoria is akin to the currently drawn-out bearish sentiment. These are the times when traders need to pay extra attention.
In our previous analysis, we touched upon the break of the yearly lows, extremely oversold market conditions, as well as the 200 Moving Average support line. Most of these observations have proven to be correct as we have now seen BTC price increase by +14% with most of the crypto market following suit. As of press time, BTCUSD is trading at $3621.
A New Breath of Life for Bitcoin
The Weekly 200 Moving Average has acted as support for BTCUSD. So far, for the bulls, you couldn’t ask for a better start of a weekly candle. A bullish engulfing bar is looking to overthrow last weeks bearish candle with most of the bearish gains nullified. A close above the previous weeks candle high at $3750 would signal real danger for bears as rallies that start early on in the week tend to have legs more often than not.
Trouble in BTC Bear Paradise
The Monthly Relative Strenght Index (RSI) has reached record-breaking oversold levels for BTC/USD. At 44.38 that is the lowest it has been since Jan 2015 which reached as low as 48.84 before the first low of bitcoin’s final double bottom.
The monthly candle is currently forming a bullish reversal pattern. Should it close near its highs by the end of the month, continued followthrough would be imminent.
Bullish targets remain the same. A push above the $3750 resistance should see upside until we touch the 4-Hour 200 Moving Average at ~$4200.
The BTCUSDSHORTS (Bitfinex) remain confident. Most are still holding on to their short positions. With most stop losses above $3700, it is fair to say that the real short squeeze has yet to begin.
A $10 Billion Rising Tide: Ripple (XRP), EOS (EOS), Stellar (XLM), and Litecoin (LTC)
The rest of the crypto market has seen the overall market cap rise by more than $10 billion in less than 24 hours, currently at $114,522,811,500. The standouts include Ripple (XRP), EOS (EOS), Stellar (XLM), and Litecoin (LTC).