Bitcoin bears have been relentless, but bitcoin bulls might have one last trick up their sleeves. Monday’s break of $4000 support has failed to produce continued downside, with little to none followthrough. It seems it is going to take a lot more bearish selling volume to pull BTC back to to the lower to-mid-$3000 range. Overall, bullish sentiment remains low while bitcoin price struggles to find its footing. With cumulative margin short positions (BTCUSDSHORTS) remaining at near all-time highs, a bullish breakout is increasingly more likely.
Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern
The Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern is commonly used to pinpoint market bottoms and/or signal potential market turns. It is formed by creating a swing low, a lower swing low, and finally a higher low. The intersecting line between the three points is referred to as the “neckline”. A break above the neckline is usually followed by a market rally towards the measured move targeted calculated from the bottom of the head to the top of the neckline.
In order to complete the right shoulder, BTCUSD needs to break the neckline at $4200. This would potentially lead to a breakout of upwards of 25% ($5200). A move that would be positively aided by the MACD which has already crossed upwards on the daily (1D) and an RSI (31.51) that is still well below overbought conditions.
BTC/USD Short Positions On The Rise
The overexuberant amount of margin short positions remains to be a problem for bears. As noted, the BTCUSDHSHORTS on Bitfinex are near record highs and one of the main reasons (despite the recent downwards volatility) why holding a short position should make any trader nervous.
Bitcoin short squeezes are notorious for their parabolic nature so all things considered, a $1000 liquidation up-move would not be surprising. What comes down, must go up eventually. Do not get caught on the wrong side of the market.